Why even the brightest people can make surprisingly poor decisions – and what great leaders do differently.
Most of us have experienced it.
A meeting ends.
A decision has been made.
As people leave the room, someone quietly says:
"I knew we shouldn't have done that."
The obvious question is...
Why didn't you say anything?
Perhaps an even better question is...
Why do groups of intelligent, experienced people still make poor decisions?
After all, organisations don't usually fail because they employ unintelligent people.
Far from it.
Many organisations are filled with talented, knowledgeable and highly experienced individuals.
Yet poor decisions still happen.
Projects overrun.
Risks are overlooked.
Assumptions go unchallenged.
Warning signs are ignored.
So perhaps intelligence isn't the deciding factor after all.
Most of us like to believe we make rational decisions.
We gather the facts.
We weigh up the evidence.
We consider the options.
Then we choose the best course of action.
In reality, our brains rarely work like that.
Long before we're consciously aware of it, our experiences, emotions, beliefs and expectations have already begun influencing how we interpret the situation.
We don't simply see reality.
We interpret reality.
And two intelligent people can interpret exactly the same situation in completely different ways.
Imagine asking three senior leaders the same question.
"How did that meeting go?"
One leaves feeling energised.
Another believes it exposed significant risks.
A third thinks very little was actually achieved.
Who's right?
Possibly all three.
Because each person isn't just recalling the meeting.
They're recalling their experience of the meeting.
Their thinking has been filtered through previous experiences, expectations, confidence, personality, emotional state and unconscious assumptions.
Understanding those filters is one of the most important skills a leader can develop.
Psychologist Daniel Kahneman spent decades exploring how people make decisions.
His research demonstrated that much of our thinking happens automatically.
Rather than carefully analysing every situation, our brains rely on mental shortcuts known as heuristics.
Most of the time these shortcuts are incredibly helpful.
Without them, everyday decisions would become exhausting.
The challenge is that they can also lead us towards predictable errors in judgement.
We become anchored by the first piece of information we hear.
We look for evidence that confirms what we already believe.
We place greater weight on recent events than longer-term patterns.
We become overly confident because previous decisions happened to work.
None of these mistakes require a lack of intelligence.
In fact, highly intelligent people are often remarkably good at constructing convincing arguments for decisions they have already made.
Great leaders understand something important.
The quality of a decision is often determined by the quality of the questions asked before it is made.
Instead of asking...
"Who agrees?"
They ask...
"What might we be missing?"
Instead of asking...
"How do we make this happen?"
They ask...
"What would have to be true for this to succeed?"
Instead of surrounding themselves with agreement, they actively seek constructive challenge.
Not because disagreement is comfortable.
Because better thinking rarely develops inside an echo chamber.
In today's organisations, speed is often celebrated.
Quick decisions.
Fast responses.
Immediate action.
There are times when speed matters.
But there are also moments when slowing down creates a significant competitive advantage.
Pausing long enough to test assumptions.
Inviting alternative perspectives.
Separating facts from interpretations.
Recognising emotion before making judgement.
These moments rarely appear dramatic.
Yet they often determine whether organisations make good decisions or expensive mistakes.
At Grey Matter, we believe one of the greatest advantages any organisation can develop is not simply employing intelligent people.
It is creating environments where people think well together.
Where assumptions are challenged respectfully.
Where different perspectives are welcomed rather than avoided.
Where curiosity is valued as highly as confidence.
Because better thinking leads to better conversations.
Better conversations lead to better decisions.
And better decisions create better organisational performance.
Intelligence may open the door.
But it is the quality of our thinking that determines where we go next.
Before making your next important decision, consider:
What assumptions am I making that I've not yet tested?
Am I looking for evidence, or simply looking for agreement?
Whose perspective is missing from this conversation?
What would someone with a completely different viewpoint notice that I haven't?
The quality of an organisation's decisions is rarely determined by the intelligence in the room. It is determined by the quality of thinking that the room allows.
The ideas explored in this Insight are informed by established research in psychology, decision-making and organisational behaviour. For readers wishing to explore these topics further, the following publications provide an excellent starting point:
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. Penguin Books.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124–1131.
Bazerman, M. H., & Moore, D. A. (2013). Judgment in Managerial Decision Making. Wiley.
Edmondson, A. C. (2019). The Fearless Organization. Wiley.
Rock, D. (2009). Your Brain at Work. Harper Business.
Schein, E. H. (2010). Organizational Culture and Leadership. Jossey-Bass.
Team Grey Matter
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